Saturday, April 24, 2010

Are there Others with Your Birthday?

Rai, you may think that your Earth Day Birthday is very unique. You may think that there is no other baby or person out there who was born on Earth Day. I don't mean to burst your bubble, little guy, but that is just not true. Read on to find out just how likely it is that you are not alone!
We visited your little friend Wes for his 1st birthday party last weekend. There were about 25 people at that party. What do you think the probability was that there was one other person at the party who has the same birthday as you? Hmmm... ? With 365 unique days in a year, the likelihood that someone would share your birthday must be really small, right? Actually, it's probably virtually impossible, right? What do you say? A 2% chance? A 5% chance at most?
Wrong. In a group of 25, the probability that two people will share a birthday is 55%! Can you believe it?! That's a better chance then flipping a coin and getting heads! And, it turns out, there was someone at that party who shares your birthday and the special thing is that that someone was the birthday boy, little Wes!
Your big first birthday party will be later today. We're expecting 45 guests. So, let's ask the question again: what's the probability that one of the guests today will try to come in and crash your party, claiming it as their own birthday party? Now, we have a larger group of people, so the chance of another having your birthday is bigger but, you won't believe how much bigger!
It turns out that the probability of two sharing a birthday in a group of 45 is a massive 93%!! Holy improbabilities, Batman! I mean, it's almost 100% certain that there will be someone else there who shares your claim to fame! I know what you're thinking, Rai. Wes is coming so that probability should be 100% but no, he can't make it. So, let's make a game of it: who can find the other Earth Day baby first?
(want to see the math? Go to: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem)

1 comment:

  1. Hey Little Dude, I went to that "Wikipedia" site and got a headache.

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